The Weakness of the Strongmen

What Really Threatens Authoritarians?

Foreign Affairs | January/February 2026

In The Weakness of the Strongmen, the author challenge the common belief that authoritarian leaders are politically invincible. Although strongmen often project confidence and control, their rule depends on fragile foundations. Elite loyalty, economic performance, and institutional cohesion are critical pillars that can weaken over time.

The Hidden Fragility of Authoritarian Rule

Authoritarian regimes frequently rely on centralized power and repression to maintain stability. However, this concentration of authority creates internal vulnerability. When decision-making narrows to a small circle, policy mistakes become more likely and harder to correct.

Moreover, strongmen depend heavily on elite alliances. If economic downturns, corruption disputes, or succession struggles emerge, those alliances can fracture. As a result, instability may come from within rather than from mass protest.

Repression and Its Limits

Repression can silence opposition temporarily. Nevertheless, it does not eliminate structural weaknesses. Surveillance, censorship, and coercion may reduce visible dissent, yet they also increase the regime’s dependence on security institutions.

Over time, this reliance narrows political flexibility. Instead of strengthening legitimacy, excessive repression can deepen distrust among elites and citizens alike.

What Truly Threatens Strongmen

The article ultimately argues that authoritarian leaders fall not simply because of popular uprising, but because of elite fragmentation and internal miscalculation. Economic shocks, leadership transitions, and strategic errors often prove more dangerous than street protests.

Therefore, the greatest threat to strongmen is institutional fragility within their own systems. Authoritarian durability is not permanent, it is conditional and contingent on internal balance.

Referece

Kotkin, S. (2026). The weakness of the strongmen: What really threatens authoritarians?. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/