Brookings. A comprehensive overview of spending, taxes, and deficits
This report by Jessica Riedl provides a comprehensive evaluation of President Joe Biden’s fiscal record, focusing on spending, taxation, and budget deficits. The analysis compares the fiscal baseline inherited in 2021 with updated projections through 2031. It also distinguishes between legislative actions, economic developments, and technical adjustments to assess their respective impacts. The central argument is that most of the increase in projected deficits stems from policy decisions rather than external economic factors.
The inherited fiscal context and baseline projections
President Biden entered office during a period of elevated deficits caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Initial projections from the Congressional Budget Office estimated $14.5 trillion in cumulative deficits for 2021–2031. However, updated projections by 2025 increased this figure to $21.2 trillion. Nearly all of the $6.6 trillion increase resulted from legislative actions and executive measures rather than macroeconomic shifts.
At the same time, the economic outlook in early 2021 suggested a recovery trajectory even without additional fiscal intervention. Therefore, the inherited baseline already incorporated expectations of declining deficits and economic normalization.
Legislative drivers of deficit expansion
The report emphasizes that legislative and executive actions were the primary contributors to rising deficits. Over the decade, these measures added approximately $6.6 trillion to projected deficits. The largest components included pandemic-related stimulus, discretionary spending increases, veterans’ benefits expansions, and student loan relief policies.
In particular, pandemic response measures accounted for over $2 trillion, while discretionary spending increases contributed more than $1.6 trillion. Additionally, executive actions—especially those related to student loans—represented a significant expansion of fiscal commitments. As shown in Figure 4 (page 12), these categories dominate the overall increase in deficits relative to the inherited baseline.
Economic and technical factors
In contrast, economic and technical factors had a relatively small net effect on deficits. Although inflation and economic growth increased projected revenues by trillions of dollars, they also raised spending and interest costs. Consequently, these effects largely offset each other, resulting in only a marginal net increase in deficits over the 2021–2031 period.
Furthermore, rising inflation played a central role in shaping fiscal outcomes. While it boosted nominal GDP and tax revenues, it also increased mandatory spending and significantly raised interest payments on federal debt. As a result, economic gains did not translate into meaningful deficit reduction.
Structural fiscal pressures and long-term outlook
Beyond short-term policy decisions, the report highlights persistent structural challenges in the federal budget. Spending reached historically high levels relative to the economy outside of wartime or deep recessions, while deficits remained elevated even after the pandemic shock subsided.
A key concern is the growing burden of entitlement programs, particularly Social Security and Medicare. These programs are projected to generate substantial long-term deficits, with combined shortfalls reaching extremely high levels over the coming decades. In addition, rising interest costs have become a major fiscal pressure, with projections indicating that interest payments could approach $2 trillion annually within a decade.
Comparative fiscal performance
The report also compares Biden’s fiscal record with those of recent presidents. When measured by legislative and executive actions, Biden’s $6.6 trillion in added deficits falls below that of Donald Trump but exceeds that of Barack Obama. However, unlike some predecessors who faced major crises or structural constraints, Biden governed during a period of economic recovery.
This comparison suggests that the expansion of deficits under Biden reflects policy choices rather than unavoidable external shocks. In addition, a significant portion of fiscal expansion occurred during periods of unified Democratic control, although some policies received bipartisan support.
Reference
Riedl, J. (2026, March). Biden’s fiscal legacy: A comprehensive overview of spending, taxes, and deficits. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-fiscal-legacy/