Bank of America keeps a positive stance on Latin American equities, with an overweight in Brazil and Argentina, a neutral position in Mexico, exposure to Peru, and no allocation to Chile or Colombia. Latin American stocks have continued to attract capital inflows despite global geopolitical tensions, helped by favorable terms of trade and the prospect that a possible de-escalation could support emerging markets through lower inflation pressure and additional room for interest-rate cuts.
In this context, the dollar and its trajectory are identified as a key factor for the sustainability of these flows and for potential rotations within the region if geopolitical risks subside. For Brazil, BofA raises its year-end Ibovespa target to 210,000 points from 180,000, implying about “7%” additional upside from current levels, based on a scenario that combines macro stability with global de-escalation. The bank expects the Selic rate at 13.25% in 2026 and 12.50% in 2027, and forecasts earnings per share in domestic sectors to grow 27% in 2026 and 20% in 2027, while warning about the risk of persistently high rates, richer valuations, and electoral volatility.
Its Brazilian strategy favors financials, cash-generative leveraged companies and selected utilities, while underweighting retail, malls and telecoms, and keeping neutral views on Petrobras and Vale. In Mexico, the stance remains market-weight, balancing nearshoring and trade-agreement opportunities with weaker activity and uncertainty around constitutional reforms, with particular upside seen for real estate players such as Vesta and Funo in a lower-rate, stronger US cycle scenario.
Argentina is still overweight on expectations of reform progress after midterm elections, although policy uncertainty, high inflation, currency weakness and capital controls are highlighted as major risks. BofA sees Chile and Colombia as less attractive due to valuation, political and commodity-related risks, while it underweights but still selectively invests in Peru through IFS, supported by relatively solid macro fundamentals despite ongoing political noise.
Referencia
Álvarez, J. P. (2026, abril 27). BofA reafirma apuesta por Brasil y Argentina y mantiene postura neutral en México. Bloomberg Línea. https://www.bloomberglinea.com/latinoamerica/argentina/bofa-reafirma-apuesta-por-brasil-y-argentina-y-mantiene-postura-neutral-en-mexico/