Finance & Development – IMF
In this December 2025 article, Bert Kroese examines the critical role of national statistical offices (NSOs) in maintaining trust in economic data. He argues that reliable statistics are essential for effective policymaking and public confidence. However, these institutions face growing challenges, including political interference, declining resources, and increasing complexity in data environments. As a result, strengthening statistical systems has become a key priority for economic governance.
The consequences of weakened statistical systems
The article begins with the example of Argentina, where unreliable inflation statistics undermined confidence in official data. As discrepancies between official and independent estimates grew, trust collapsed. Investors withdrew, and policymakers struggled to make informed decisions.
This case illustrates a broader point. Without independence and adequate funding, statistical systems cannot produce reliable data. Consequently, poor-quality statistics weaken decision-making and economic stability. In contrast, strong NSOs provide a foundation for evidence-based policy and credible economic analysis.
Rising complexity in the data landscape
The modern data environment is increasingly complex. Advances in technology and artificial intelligence have expanded the volume of available data. However, these tools can also generate misleading or inaccurate results. For example, as noted on page 1, large language models may produce plausible but incorrect economic data, which can be difficult to detect.
In this context, NSOs play a crucial role. They rely on standardized methodologies and transparent processes, ensuring consistency and comparability across countries. Moreover, they provide a benchmark against which other data sources can be evaluated. This function is especially important in an era of misinformation and rapid data dissemination.
Institutional foundations of trust
Kroese emphasizes three key pillars for effective statistical systems: independence, funding, and access to data. Independence ensures that statistics reflect reality rather than political agendas. Legal frameworks must protect NSOs from external interference and allow them to operate based on professional standards.
Adequate funding is equally important. Producing high-quality statistics requires skilled personnel, modern technology, and continuous research. However, many statistical agencies face declining budgets. For instance, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has experienced significant real funding reductions since 2010.
Access to data is another critical factor. Governments should facilitate data sharing between institutions while ensuring confidentiality. In addition, NSOs must integrate new data sources, such as administrative records and private-sector data, to remain relevant.
Innovation and future challenges
To address emerging challenges, NSOs must adapt and innovate. Declining survey response rates, as seen in the United Kingdom’s labor force survey, make traditional data collection more difficult. At the same time, new economic activities, such as the gig economy, require updated measurement approaches.
Innovation involves adopting new technologies and improving data accessibility. This includes using big data, enhancing metadata, and developing tools such as dashboards and visualizations. Furthermore, communication is essential. Clear and accessible presentation of statistics can improve public understanding and increase trust.
The article concludes that NSOs are fundamental to economic stability and governance. Strengthening their independence, resources, and capacity to innovate is essential to maintaining trust in economic data and ensuring sound policymaking.
Reference
Kroese, B. (2025, December). Instilling trust through statistics. Finance & Development, International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/12/point-of-view-instilling-trust-through-statistics-bert-kroese