The article presents Nicolás Maduro’s removal as a decisive rupture that extends beyond Venezuela and places Cuba’s communist system in immediate danger. It’s the portrayal of the fall of the Venezuelan leadership. But also a long-standing alliance with Cuban intelligence officers, security forces and advisers who sustained the Chávez–Maduro regime in exchange for heavily subsidized oil. With Maduro gone, that lifeline appears to be collapsing.
Cuba’s extreme dependence on Venezuelan oil stands at the center of the crisis. The disappearance of those supplies has triggered severe energy shortages, widespread blackouts and rising public anger. Mexican shipments offered only short-term relief and drained Mexico’s own resources, while the threat of broader U.S. sanctions hangs over any renewed support. Russia shows little capacity or willingness to intervene, and Cuba’s limited domestic oil production cannot compensate because its refineries cannot process heavy crude.
The narrative also highlights U.S. military actions that destroyed key Venezuelan air-defense systems and disrupted infrastructure during Maduro’s capture. It is suggesting that similar weaknesses may exist in Cuba. It links Venezuela under Maduro to a wider network involving Colombian guerrillas, Iranian drone programs and Hezbollah operations, arguing that the regime’s collapse weakens these groups across the region.
At the political level, the analysis frames these events as part of a larger hemispheric shift toward pro-U.S. governments. Cuban leaders now call for unity as shortages deepen, protests multiply and repression intensifies. Support from Russia and China failed to save Maduro and offers little hope for Havana. Taken together, economic collapse, social unrest and regional realignment place Cuba’s communist leadership under unprecedented pressure and raise the prospect of a historic political rupture.
Reference
Bryen, S. (2026, January 3). Is Cuba next after Maduro’s capture? Weapons and Strategy. https://weapons.substack.com/p/is-cuba-next-after-maduros-capture?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=59ocs7&triedRedirect=true