End of Limits
The New START nuclear arms control treaty expired on February 5, 2026, ending decades of mutual limits between the United States and Russia. Consequently, both nations now can deploy more strategic nuclear weapons without legal caps. Although informal talks continue, formal verification and restrictions no longer bind either side.
Stability Through Verification
Previously, limits on warheads, missiles, and bombers reduced risks of miscalculation. In addition, on-site inspections and data exchange built confidence and transparency.
However, inspections effectively stopped during the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed. Thus, intelligence certainty about nuclear forces is now weaker than before.
Risk of Arms Buildup
Without formal limits, both sides could increase deployed weapons. For example, the U.S. might reopen missile tubes on submarines.
In contrast, Russia also holds large reserves it can upload to delivery systems. Therefore, a slow and steady arms race seems likely absent new agreements.
Strategic Competition Beyond Russia
Meanwhile, China’s nuclear forces are expanding rapidly. North Korea also maintains a credible, though smaller, deterrent. Thus, U.S. policy debates increasingly reflect concerns about multilateral competition.
Prospects for New Agreements
Even so, negotiators see value in renewed diplomatic efforts. Key priorities include verification mechanisms and non-strategic weapons limits.
Active communication channels might help avoid misinterpretation or accidents. Despite challenges, many believe arms control remains a useful foreign-policy tool.
Looking Ahead
New START´s end does not prevent future treaties or cooperation. However, new frameworks may look different from past agreements. Ultimately, nuclear risk reduction may depend on political will and diplomacy.
Source:
Dumbacher, E. D. (2026, 9 de febrero). Nukes Without Limits? A New Era After the End of New START. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/articles/nukes-without-limits-a-new-era-after-the-end-of-new-start