The current US-Israeli war on Iran lacks a clear or achievable objective, according to Shlomo Ben-Ami. While the conflict violates international law, its primary issue is the strategic ambiguity surrounding its endgame. US officials alternate between seeking regime change and limited strikes on nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Israel pursues a “total war” strategy by targeting Iranian oil installations.
Economic Impact and Iranian Resistance
This military offensive has caused Brent crude oil prices to surge by 29%, reaching nearly $120 per barrel. President Donald Trump seeks to limit this energy shock to maintain support among his political base. However, Iran has responded with defiance under its new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas. Furthermore, nuclear risks are rising quickly as Iran possesses nearly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to strike US bases and Gulf oil facilities, viewing the war as an existential threat.
Concerns of Regional Allies
Gulf states recognize the flawed logic of the war and fear the brunt of Iranian retaliation. They worry that continued instability will ruin their hard-won image as safe locations for international business. Additionally, these nations fear that a collapse of the Iranian regime would lead to a descent into chaos and extremism.
Conflicting Political Agendas
The conflict’s resolution is complicated by the differing pressures facing leadership. Trump’s calculations are shaped by energy prices, the stock market, and upcoming elections. Conversely, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu views “total victory” as essential to his political legacy, despite corruption charges and broken promises. This divergence risks alienating the American public and creating a strategic threat to Israel’s international standing.
Reference
Ben-Ami, S. (12 de marzo de 2026). The Iran War’s Muddled Endgame. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-and-israel-have-vague-and-contradictory-aims-in-iran-by-shlomo-ben-ami-2026-03