World leaders at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) focus on Gaza and Ukraine, both expected to extend beyond this year and possibly into 2026.
In Gaza, a three-phase ceasefire collapsed, leading to deadlock, humanitarian crisis, intensified military operations, and continued hostage situations. France and the UK will recognize a Palestinian state, but symbolic moves may trigger Israeli counteractions and harden Hamas’s demands.
In Ukraine, shifting U.S. positions created uncertainty. While summits highlighted Putin’s aims of territorial gains and preventing Ukraine’s future defense capabilities. Diplomacy remains adrift as Ukraine braces for winter and possible larger Russian attacks.
UNGA vs. CRINK
Reporter McGurk contrasts UNGA’s symbolic discussions with Beijing’s China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Alliance (CRINK). CRINK actively challenges the United States through military, economic, and technological support, particularly evident in Ukraine.
North Korea contributes troops, Iran provides drones, and China sustains Russia economically by purchasing energy products.
Xi Jinping ordered China’s military to prepare for possible Taiwan invasion by 2027, raising risks of global economic shock and supply disruptions. Most experts doubt immediate invasion but note gray-zone tactics like cyber-attacks, propaganda, and economic pressure to weaken Taiwan. Risk assessments place invasion probability at 35% , increasing as Beijing expands military readiness.
2026 as a ‘gateway’ year
Trump commented on Beijing summit imagery, noting leaders’ intent to signal opposition to Washington. Reporter McGurk frames 2026 as decisive for global stability or disorder, depending on deterrence and alliances.
If aggression costs decrease, CRINK gains advantage;, if costs rise, U.S. alliances like NATO and Pacific partners may strengthen. Artificial intelligence competition between the U.S. and China adds urgency, comparable to Cold War technology rivalries.
Consolidation or increasing disorder
Trump views Ukraine narrowly, while advisers downplay its global implications. Meanwhile, CRINK considers Ukraine central to its interests, acting accordingly. Pacific allies like Japan and South Korea support Ukraine, recognizing deterrence of Xi’s ambitions in their region. Finally, Reporter McGurk suggests consolidating support for Ukraine, raising costs for Russia, while pursuing negotiation.
In the Middle East, ending Gaza conflict and pursuing integration remain key for regional and global peace. Unresolved conflicts risk tearing global order, allowing CRINK greater advantage across multiple regions.
Reference
McGurk, B. (2025, September 23). Why 2026 could be one of the most pivotal years in a generation. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/23/politics/unga-2026-pivotal-year-mcgurk-analysis