Equitable vaccine distribution could save millions of lives.
A new study by the NUS-Lancet Prime Commission estimates that nearly 2.7 million additional lives could be saved during a future flu pandemic if vaccines were distributed according to population size rather than countries’ purchasing power. Researchers modelled a hypothetical global outbreak and found that rapidly developing vaccines could reduce deaths from 58.5 million to 23.9 million. Equitable distribution could lower the total further, although deaths in high-income countries would increase from 2.4 million to 3.9 million. The modelling also found that greater confidence in vaccines could prevent another 1.9 million deaths.
Pandemic preparedness must address structural inequality.
The commission’s research in 20 countries examined communities severely affected by Covid-19 and other crises, including homeless people in Indonesia, internally displaced people in Ethiopia and families bereaved by Covid-19 in the UK. Researchers found that structural inequalities can determine who is able to access protection during an outbreak. Crowded housing can make isolation impossible, a lack of identity documents can prevent access to government support, and language barriers can limit understanding of public health guidance. The commission argues that traditional preparedness models have focused too heavily on technical checklists rather than equitable access to resources.
Community participation and global cooperation are essential.
The NUS-Lancet Prime Commission, established in 2023 by the National University of Singapore and The Lancet, brings together 41 experts from health, finance, planning and community sectors. Its recommendations include institutionalising community participation in pandemic planning, strengthening regional research and manufacturing capacity, and making governments accountable for protecting populations. The findings are being published ahead of a UN High-Level Meeting on pandemic preparedness. Health leaders also stress that trust cannot be created once an outbreak begins. Countries must build responsive health systems before the next crisis so vaccines, treatments, information and care can reach vulnerable communities.
Reference
Lay, K. (2026, September 21). Nearly 3m more lives could be saved in next pandemic if vaccines are shared more fairly, says report. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/21/nearly-3m-more-lives-could-be-saved-in-next-pandemic-if-vaccines-are-shared-more-fairly-says-report