As mass protests rock Iran amid reports of severe repression and potentially thousands of deaths, analysts are increasingly looking to President Donald Trump’s recent intervention in Venezuela as a possible indicator of what may come next. Trump’s January 3 raid that led to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was a geopolitical shock. It marked a precedent of willingness to use swift, decisive military force to remove sanctioned leaders and reshape regional power dynamics. That action, framed as part of Trump’s broader drive for hemispheric dominance, is now being read as a warning in Iran’s unfolding crisis.
Although Iran’s political and military context differs significantly from Venezuela’s, Trump’s approach reveals a readiness to act unilaterally. Even in defiance of international law and domestic checks. Analysts caution, however, that the outcome in Venezuela may not align well for Iranian protesters who are seeking genuine political change. In the case of Venezuela, U.S. sidelined pro-democracy forces and prioritized control over oil exports through accommodation with remnants of the old regime.
A “Venezuela-Style” deal or an Uncertain Path Forward
Experts suggest Trump favors short, high-impact military actions rather than prolonged interventions, raising doubts about whether he would pursue a full-scale dismantlement of Iran’s system. While public rhetoric from Tehran remains defiant, reports of private diplomatic signaling hint at possible negotiations. Especially as sanctions and economic strain are tightening the regime’s options. Some observers argue a “Venezuela-style” deal — involving leadership changes, renewed U.S. access to resources and partial sanctions relief — could theoretically appeal to Iran’s leadership.
Others remain skeptical, noting that Iran’s power structure is deeply bound to anti-American ideology and unlikely to sacrifice its core leadership without existential pressure. With protests continuing and the situation evolving rapidly, analysts agree that outcomes remain highly uncertain. Still, Trump’s Venezuela gambit has unmistakably reshaped expectations, not only for Iran but potentially for other U.S. adversaries. This as supporters of the president openly speculate that similar tactics could next be applied to countries like Cuba.
Reference
Tharoor, I. (2026b, January 13). Could Iran go the way of Venezuela? The Washigton Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/01/14/trump-iran-regime-change-protests-venezuela/