Novo Nordisk lost a quarter of its market value after cutting sales forecasts, while Eli Lilly suffered its biggest one-day loss in 25 years. Together, both firms have lost 35% of their market value since their peak, equal to half a trillion dollars. Novo Nordisk also changed leadership after these setbacks
Eli Lilly’s newer drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, overtook Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy in popularity. Novo’s shortages opened the door for compounding pharmacies, which now cover 30% of U.S. obesity prescriptions. Other companies, including Pfizer, Roche, Zealand, and Innovent, are entering the market with new treatments and trials.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly benefit from their large production capacity and massive capital expenditures. Novo’s $28bn in investments, including a $16.5bn Catalent acquisition, strengthens U.S. supply ahead of Trump’s tariffs. Eli Lilly has spent $21bn, keeping it close in scale. Lawsuits and FDA scrutiny of compounders may return lost market share to Novo.
Novo Nordisk’s pill version of Wegovy shows comparable effectiveness to injections, while Eli Lilly’s pill is easier to produce and cheaper. Novo’s cagrilintide and Cagri-Sema combination promise effective results with fewer side-effects. Eli Lilly’s retatrutide shows strong potential. These products are further advanced than rival offerings, likely ensuring Novo and Lilly dominate the projected $100bn obesity drug market until at least 2030.
Fat chances
Rivals may not clear clinical or regulatory hurdles before 2028, leaving Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to capture most of the market. Both firms remain positioned as leaders, though competition may intensify beyond 2030.
Reference
Ryder, B. (2025, September 25). Novo Nordisk v Eli Lilly: return of the weight-loss wars. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/25/novo-nordisk-v-eli-lilly-return-of-the-weight-loss-wars