How U.S.-Chinese Competition Could Leave Most Countries Behind
As artificial intelligence becomes central to global economic and strategic power, a divide is emerging that could leave many countries behind. Its development is concentrated in the hands of a few dominant actors, particularly the United States and China, whose vast resources give them outsized control over how the technology develops and who benefits from it. This concentration of capacity means that most other nations lack the resources and influence needed to shape AI’s future or harness its advantages fully, which is extremely problematic.
Countries such as France, India and the United Kingdom (often called middle powers) face a particular risk of marginalization. Though they have significant scientific and economic strength, they do not have the scale, computing infrastructure or capital to build frontier AI systems on their own. As a result, they may be dependent on either U.S. or Chinese AI ecosystems, limiting their ability to chart independent technological pathways.
This concentration of AI capability also means that disruptions from AI —including workforce impacts, cybercrime and economic shifts— will affect middle and developing countries even if they do not share in the technological gains. Without access to cutting-edge systems, they may struggle to adapt to rapid changes, widening inequalities and leaving them vulnerable in a world shaped by AI.
Middle powers have several strategic options, but none are simple. Some may align closely with either the United States or China to secure access to AI technologies, while others might try to play the two powers against each other for leverage. A more ambitious path would involve developing greater technological sovereignty, though this would require substantial investment and policy coordination.
In this emerging order, countries face difficult and consequential choices. Aligning with dominant AI powers may offer access, but at the cost of independence. Ultimately, the AI divide is not simply about technology, but about who will shape the rules of the future, and who will be forced to live under them.
Reference: Winter-Levy, S., & Leicht, A. (2026, February 10). The AI divide: How U.S.–Chinese competition could leave most countries behind. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ai-divide