The rivalry between China and the United States is often viewed through the “Thucydides Trap”. This theory suggests war is likely when a rising power threatens to displace a leading one. However, Joshua Rovner’s analysis in Foreign Affairs argues the real danger is not just the power shift. Instead, the true trap lies in a dangerous illusion: the belief that modern technology allows for a quick, decisive victory.
Historical Lessons: Athens vs. Sparta
In the fifth century BC, Athens and Sparta had actually reached a stable balance of power before their war. Athens dominated the sea, while Sparta dominated the land. The tragedy occurred because both sides imagined they could win a war quickly without challenging the rival’s main strengths.
Today, we see a similar dynamic. China is the preeminent land power in East Asia, and the United States remains the strongest at sea. This stalemate should discourage war, but “prewar hope” fueled by new technology is changing that perception.
The Mirage of AI and High-Tech War
Currently, both nations feed strategic fantasies based on artificial intelligence (AI) and cyber operations. China believes it can use AI-coordinated “saturation attacks” to paralyze U.S. communications and win fast. Meanwhile, the Pentagon plans for “blinding strikes” to force a quick Chinese surrender.
History shows that early encounters between capable rivals usually destroy these illusions. What starts as a plan for a swift blow often turns into a ruinous, protracted conflict.
Strategies to Extricate from the Trap
To avoid disaster, both nations must move beyond high-level emergency hotlines. Military diplomacy should include routine interactions between lower-ranking officers and academics. These dialogues help leaders understand the sobering risks of a long war.
Furthermore, leaders should avoid public boasting about “technological wizardry”. Triumphalist rhetoric does not always deter; instead, it may encourage an adversary to take extraordinary risks and “shoot first” during a crisis. Ultimately, recognizing that tactical lethality is not the same as strategic success is the first step toward lasting peace.
Reference
Rovner, J. (2026, April 14). The Real Thucydides Trap: How Overconfidence Could Draw America and China Into a War. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-thucydides-trap