Navigating the joint review for a more secure and competitive North America
USMCA Forward 2026 is a Brookings collection that examines the first joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in a context of renewed tariff pressure, geopolitical rivalry, and supply-chain restructuring. The report argues that the review is not a routine procedural step. Instead, it is a high-stakes decision point that could lead to renewal, revision, or eventual expiration of the agreement. Christopher Sands notes that the review matters because USMCA, unlike NAFTA, includes a formal update mechanism and now serves as a key framework for trade, investment, and regional competitiveness in North America.
The review as a strategic turning point
The report presents the 2026 review as both a source of uncertainty and an opportunity. According to the introductory chapter, each member government must decide whether to renew the agreement for another 16 years, withdraw, or continue it without renewal until 2036. That uncertainty has already affected business expectations and investment decisions. At the same time, the review opens space to modernize rules and strengthen support for regional integration. Sands argues that the review process itself is a major institutional improvement over NAFTA, which lacked a built-in mechanism for revision.
Evidence of deeper North American integration
A central message of the report is that USMCA has strengthened North American economic integration. The chart on page 15 shows that total trilateral goods and services trade reached a new high in 2024. In addition, the same page shows that manufacturing dominates intraregional trade. The chapter by Brendan Kelly, Jesús Cañas, and Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz explains that Mexico remained the top U.S. trading partner in 2025, while Canada ranked second, and both countries increased USMCA compliance sharply as higher tariffs made preferential treatment more valuable. The authors also show that North American manufacturing ties now extend beyond autos into computers, electronics, and medical devices.
Competitiveness, security, and unresolved tensions
The collection also makes clear that economic integration alone will not secure the agreement’s future. Several contributors argue that North America must connect trade policy with economic security, regulatory cooperation, and industrial strategy. The viewpoints from Canada, Mexico, and business leaders emphasize supply-chain resilience, critical minerals, energy, digital trade, and investment screening. However, the report also highlights tensions caused by tariffs, weak investor confidence, and disputes over rules, labor, and enforcement. The introductory essay notes that optimism about North America’s potential is real, but it is tempered by damage to trust and persistent policy uncertainty.
Reference
Anner, M., Appleton, B., Breier, K., Cañas, J., Coulibaly, B. S., Gutiérrez Fernández, G., Hernández Trillo, F., Heerman, K., Helper, S., Hyder, G., Kelly, B., Laing, C., & LeBlanc, D. (2026, January). Chief Economists’ Outlook. World Economic Forum. https://www.brookings.edu/collection/usmca-forward-2026/