Why Spheres of Influence Are Impractical Today
First, major powers are seeking separate regions of dominance amid renewed global competition, yet neither the U.S. nor China can cut themselves off economically. Both economies depend on global trade: China needs external markets and capital, and the U.S. requires imports and financing for advanced technology sectors.
Furthermore, both face deep structural imbalances that make closed economic blocs unrealistic; China saves far more than it can invest, while the U.S. does not save enough to fuel investment at home. This mutual reliance has historically underpinned global growth, as Chinese savings financed American consumption and U.S. demand absorbed Chinese production.
For example, recent trade data shows persistent deficits in the United States with corresponding surplus in China that reflect ongoing economic interdependence. Even regions like Latin America lack the capital capacity to substitute for global markets, further undermining any narrow regional economic self-sufficiency.
From Economic Entanglement to Cooperation Challenges
Moreover, global engagement remains essential for technological innovation, since firms like Microsoft, Apple, and Alphabet earn significant revenue outside their home market. Consequently, attempts to retreat into rigid spheres contradict the economic reality that innovation and growth depend on large, integrated markets.
As competition hardens, trade tensions and tariffs have replaced prior cooperation, making economic relations feel zero-sum rather than mutually reinforcing. Under such conditions, economic incentives suggest that cooperation, not regional domination, is the most sustainable long-term strategy.
In fact, greater internal economic balance, supported by broader social protections and welfare reforms, could reduce savings-investment mismatches and strengthen domestic demand. Although unlikely politically, this shift might help stabilize societies and reduce incentives for conflict. Ultimately, history shows that even Cold War blocs never achieved full self-sufficiency, and today’s more tightly linked global chains make isolated spheres even less viable.
Source:
Bastasin, C. (2026, February 4). Why spheres of influence are useless. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-spheres-of-influence-are-useless/