Strategic Chokepoint
First, the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz threatens a critical artery of global trade. A large share of oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertilizer exports move through this narrow passage.
Consequently, attacks on shipping and rising insurance costs have sharply reduced maritime traffic. This disruption affects energy markets and agricultural supply chains simultaneously.
Fertilizer at the Center of the Crisis
Meanwhile, fertilizer markets face immediate pressure because the Middle East is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, and other nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Furthermore, roughly one-fifth to one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the conflict especially disruptive for agricultural inputs.
As a result, fertilizer prices have risen rapidly, with global urea prices climbing significantly after the conflict began.
Effects on Global Agriculture
Consequently, farmers preparing for planting seasons face higher input costs and potential shortages. This uncertainty may reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields.
Similarly, nitrogen fertilizer is essential for producing staple crops such as wheat, rice, and maize, which supply a large share of global calories.
Therefore, disruptions in fertilizer availability could weaken agricultural productivity across multiple regions.
Energy Prices and Food Costs
At the same time, the war has pushed oil prices higher, increasing the cost of farming, transportation, and food processing.
Because modern agriculture depends heavily on fuel, rising energy prices increase costs across the entire food supply chain.
Consequently, consumers may face higher prices for both fresh and packaged foods.
Vulnerable Regions
Meanwhile, countries dependent on fertilizer imports or food imports are particularly exposed. Import-reliant agricultural systems may struggle to absorb rising costs.
In addition, farmers in lower-income regions may reduce fertilizer use when prices rise, which can further decrease harvests and intensify food insecurity.
A Delayed Global Impact
Finally, fertilizer shocks often appear slowly compared with oil shocks. Energy prices rise immediately, whereas crop shortages emerge months later during harvest seasons.
Therefore, today’s disruptions in fertilizer supply could translate into higher food prices and potential instability in the near future.
Source:
Werz, M. (2026, March 13). The Iran war’s hidden front: Food, water, and fertilizer. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-iran-wars-hidden-front-food-water-and-fertilizer