World Bank. Eastern and Southern Africa
The Burundi Country Climate and Development Report (2026) analyzes how climate change is affecting Burundi’s economic development and social stability. It highlights that the country is one of the most climate-vulnerable globally due to its dependence on rainfed agriculture, weak infrastructure, and institutional fragility.
Climate risks are not isolated—they directly impact poverty, food security, and internal displacement.
Climate risks and structural vulnerability
Burundi faces increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods, and landslides, which heavily disrupt agriculture and rural livelihoods.
Around 80% of the population depends on climate-sensitive sectors, making the country highly exposed to shocks.
Without intervention, climate change could significantly worsen poverty and economic instability. In a pessimistic scenario, GDP could contract and poverty could exceed 70% by 2050.
Development pathways and key sectors
The report proposes a shift from a “business-as-usual” path to a high, green, and resilient (HGR) development model.
It identifies five priority sectors:
- Agriculture (climate-smart practices and irrigation)
- Urban resilience and infrastructure
- Mining (sustainable and regulated)
- Transport systems
- Human capital and social inclusion
Adaptation investments are critical—not just for protection, but for growth. Even modest climate investments (1–3% of GDP) can significantly improve economic outcomes.
Conclusion and policy implications
The report concludes that Burundi’s future depends on integrating climate action with economic reform. Key priorities include:
- Strengthening institutions and governance
- Scaling up climate-resilient infrastructure
- Expanding climate finance and private sector participation
- Investing in local and community-level adaptation
A passive approach will deepen poverty and fragility, while proactive adaptation can enable sustainable growth and resilience.
World Bank Group. (2026). Burundi country climate and development report. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/44646