Diverging Wartime Fortunes
Vladimir Putin is meeting Xi Jinping at a moment when the balance between Russia and China has shifted sharply. Russia endured damaging Ukrainian strikes against its oil, gas and other vulnerable industries during the summer. Meanwhile, China emerged from the Iran war with greater influence over oil markets and stronger resilience against Western pressure.
Their meeting in Kyrgyzstan will take place beside a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The location highlights Russia’s declining influence in Central Asia, where Moscow once held a dominant position. China has become increasingly important in Kyrgyzstan and across the region. Analysts say that same imbalance now shapes decisions inside the Kremlin.
Moscow Becomes the Junior Partner
Economic damage from the war has made Russia more dependent on Chinese trade and financial support. Beijing benefits by purchasing cheaper Russian oil and entering markets left by Western companies. Chinese products have become so dominant that some Russian industries want the government to restrict imports. This dependence gives Xi greater leverage over Putin and Russia’s future choices.
China has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although it has criticized threats involving nuclear weapons. Beijing publicly calls for negotiations and an end to violence. Russia’s worsening position could therefore allow Xi to press Putin toward that stated policy. Still, China gains from maintaining the relationship and has little reason to abandon Moscow.
Partnership With Clear Limits
Tensions remain beneath the public displays of unity. Some Russians accuse China of offering only enough support to sustain the economy and military campaign. Beijing has also rejected Moscow’s proposals for a new natural gas pipeline unless Russia accepts very low domestic-level prices. At the same time, Chinese companies continue supplying dual-use goods and drone components.
The meeting follows a secretive visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who warned Russia against attacking NATO countries. A wider conflict would concern China, but analysts expect Xi to raise sensitive issues privately. Publicly, he will probably repeat calls for dialogue, de-escalation and a political settlement. Putin has limited room to resist because he still considers Xi an essential strategic partner.
References
Grove, T., & Ramzy, A. (2026, 30 agosto). Putin turns again to China’s Xi as Russia’s clout crumbles. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-turns-again-to-chinas-xi-as-russias-clout-crumbles-125c56be