Slowdown in U.S. Population Growth
National population growth dropped sharply between mid-2024 and mid-2025. Growth fell from 0.96% to 0.52%, one of the lowest rates in U.S. history outside the pandemic. This declaration comes despite low natural increases, which adds fewer births than deaths. Because of that, international migration still drove most of the remaining population gains.
Net international migration fell dramatically, from 2.7 million to 1.3 million. Because natural increase is low, immigration accounted for 71% of total growth in 2024-25. Without this immigration, population growth would have been even smaller.
Role of Immigration in Population Trends
Reduced immigration has emerged as a major driver of slower national growth. In fact, immigration declines explain most of the reduced population gains across the country. This trend follows years of shifting demographics, including pandemic impacts and post-pandemic immigration boosts. The recent decline represents a reversal of earlier increases in migration arrivals.
Although births and deaths influence population size, they remain a weaker factor long-term. Natural increases has been trending downward for decades as the population ages. Because births no longer offset deaths by a large margin, immigration matters more than before. As a result, fewer immigrants directly translates into slower overall growth.
State-Level Population Patterns
Almost all states saw slower growth or more population loss compared to the prior year. Specifically, 48 states plus Washington, D.C. registered lower population gains or outright declines.
In many states, the immigration decrease was the main cause of population slowdowns. In some regions, immigration provided all the growth in 2024-25. In others, it provided more than half the increase, counteracting natural and domestic losses. Consequently, states with small domestic gains still avoided bigger declines because of immigrants.
California illustrates this shift well; the state went from strong growth to slight decline because immigration fell sharply. Domestic out-migration, combined with low natural increase, outweighed the remaining foreign arrivals.
Migration Patterns and Regional Shifts
Domestic migration patterns have shifted since the pandemic, influencing state growth. Earlier, large coastal and Midwest states lost residents to Sun Belt and Mountain West states. However, recent data suggest that this movement has softened somewhat.
Although domestic migration still matters, future growth will increasingly depend on internal U.S. mobility. That is because immigration levels are falling and will remain a principal source of new residents. States with weaker domestic inflows may thus see smaller gains or even net losses ahead.
Broader Demographic Context
Historically, U.S. population growth responded to wars, pandemics, economic changes, and migration shocks. For example, growth dipped during the 1918 Spanish flu and the Great Depression. Likewise, baby boom years saw unusually high growth due to high births.
More recently, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic reduced both births and immigration sharply. After a brief rebound in immigration and growth, the 2024-25 data show a renewed slowdown. Overall, the long-term decline in natural increase continues to underscore the importance of migration.
Implications for Future Growth
As immigration falls, population growth may continue to shrink. Many states could experience even weaker gains, or potentially start to lose population. The ongoing demographic shift highlights how central immigration is to national population dynamics. Finally, continued monitoring of migration and natural trends will be critical for future planning.
Source:
Frey, W. H. (2026, febrero 11). Reduced immigration slowed population growth for the nation and most states, new census data show. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/reduced-immigration-slowed-population-growth-for-the-nation-and-most-states-new-census-data-show/