East Africa is preparing for a “Super El Niño” that could be the strongest ever in 2026. The phenomenon will intensify the October to December rainy season, bringing floods, landslides, and damage. Scientists say it is already established, will strengthen in the coming months, peak around Christmas, and last until February 2027. Up to 3 million people could be displaced, according to an NGO.
Governments are preparing with limited resources. Nairobi has dug trenches and repaired power lines, but the city lacks proper sewers and drainage. The government also wants to protect the “Northern Corridor,” a key trade route from Mombasa to inland hubs like Kampala and Goma, worth about $61 billion in trade in 2021.
El Niño’s effects will differ across Africa. In southern Africa, it means drought and threatens crops. After the 2023 episode, maize production fell 19% the next year. South Africa expects a 7.5% drop in its 2026 wheat harvest, a near ten-year low. In West Africa, it strengthens the dry harmattan wind. Cocoa production in Ivory Coast and Ghana could fall by 20% and 13%.
Prices are already rising. Global cocoa prices in London are up about 75% since June. The African Development Bank says GDP in the worst-hit countries could fall 1% to 2%, costing $10 to 20 billion across the continent. Before El Niño was confirmed, the bank expected 4.2% average growth for 2026. But the continent is economically weaker than during the last strong episode in 2015-2016, due to a strong dollar, financing constraints, and high oil prices. Egypt, Zambia, and Ethiopia have the least room to handle a new food price shock.
Reference
Le Monde, “Le ‘super El Niño’ qui arrive pourrait effacer 20 milliards de dollars de croissance en Afrique,” published September 21, 2026. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/09/21/l-afrique-face-a-un-super-el-nino-qui-pourrait-effacer-20-milliards-de-dollars-de-croissance_6778734_3234.html