Warnings Before the February Assault
Days before the United States attacked Iran, President Donald Trump asked his intelligence chief whether a full-scale assault would succeed. Senior aides and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu argued that Iran was weaker than it had been in decades. They viewed the moment as an opportunity to dismantle its nuclear program and possibly topple the government.
Intelligence officials offered a different assessment. Tulsi Gabbard warned that killing Iran’s supreme leader could produce a harder-line government willing to pursue nuclear weapons. She also predicted attacks on US forces, disruption of the energy market and an Iranian effort to close the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, military leaders raised concerns about casualties, weapons supplies and the readiness of an overstretched force.
Vice President JD Vance favored continued negotiations because Iran’s economy was already weakening under sanctions. However, Trump accepted Pentagon presentations describing decisive military options. The attack began on February 28, and the president encouraged Iranians to overthrow their government.
Six Months of Military and Economic Costs
Trump had suggested the conflict would end within six weeks, yet it continued without a clear conclusion nearly six months later. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard remained in control, while the government led by Mojtaba Khamenei showed no intention of surrendering. Iranian forces also continued attacking commercial vessels in the strait.
Combat operations have killed an estimated 3,000 Iranians and 18 US service members. The Pentagon also reported 756 wounded American troops. In addition, the war damaged US bases, reduced oil reserves and depleted munitions stockpiles. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz interrupted one-fifth of global oil and gas trade, driving fuel prices upward.
Political pressure increased alongside the battlefield costs. Gulf leaders requested a diplomatic solution, while Republicans warned that the war threatened their prospects in the November elections. Consequently, Trump’s approval ratings fell as questions grew about what the United States was gaining from the conflict.
Diplomacy Gives Way to Economic Pressure
Regional pressure helped produce a temporary ceasefire and a June 17 agreement to reopen the strait. The arrangement created 60 days for nuclear negotiations. Still, Tehran resumed attacks on ships, and repeated announcements of progress failed to produce a lasting settlement.
After negotiations ended on August 17, the administration shifted toward sanctions and a continuing naval blockade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the campaign as Operation Economic Outcast, which aimed to collapse Iran’s government. Now, Trump is relying on economic pressure after military action and diplomacy failed to achieve his desired nuclear agreement.
References
Ward, A., Seligman, L., & Leary, A. (2026, 25 agosto). The warnings that came before a war now reaching the six-month mark. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-warnings-9d7f289a?st=2PgRWP