Middle East oil exports are recovering. Tracking firm Kpler says Gulf countries, excluding Iran, now ship more crude than before the war, about 17 million barrels a day. From 30 September to 3 October, the daily average topped 20 million barrels. Much of this oil travels by pipeline to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has tried to block.
Traffic through Hormuz is also rising, reaching up to 80% of pre-war levels. In March, when the strait was fully blocked, exports fell to about 4.5 million barrels a day. They began recovering in June after a US-Iran deal raised hopes for peace. US military escorts and a shipping corridor along Oman’s coast helped more ships get through. Even Qatari gas is moving again, with about 20 cargoes crossing the strait in September.
But normal is still far off. Brent crude was around $97 a barrel on Tuesday, 6 October, as attacks on ships continue. The danger has made shipping harder and pushed up freight and insurance costs. Ships now move cargoes inside the Gulf and transfer them to other vessels waiting beyond Hormuz. This is slow, costly and ties up many large tankers.
The result is a shortage of ships and a surge in charter rates. On 23 September, moving a crude cargo from the Middle East to Asia on a supertanker cost more than $1.2 million a day, versus $20,000 to $30,000 for most of 2026. Freight now accounts for nearly a third of the barrel price paid by refineries, up from about 3% before the war. Vitol chief Russell Hardy warned Tuesday that after a crude crisis and a fuel crisis, the world now faces a shipping crisis. Analysts say the G7 plan to release 100 million barrels from strategic stocks will only help a little.
Reference
de Vergès, M. (2026, October 6). Les exportations de pétrole du Golfe rebondissent au-delà de leurs niveaux d’avant-guerre. Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2026/10/06/les-exportations-de-petrole-du-golfe-rebondissent-au-dela-de-leurs-niveaux-d-avant-guerre_6789050_3234.html