A Turning Point for AI in 2026
Artificial intelligence is entering a decisive phase defined by governance, widespread deployment, and geopolitical competition.
As a result, policymakers must turn broad principles into enforceable rules for societies and markets.
Consequently, decisions made in 2026 will influence where AI power, responsibility, and opportunity concentrate.
AI Takeoff and Global Competition
In 2026, AI capabilities are expected to become undeniable. Thus, models may autonomously manage complex projects and analysis without much human oversight.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and China intensify competition for technological leadership and strategic advantage. Export controls on AI chips remain a core policy tool, shaping this competition.
However, recent U.S. decisions have loosened some controls, creating debate about future competitive balance.
Domestic Policy and Economic Disruption
As AI fuels economic growth, workers face disruption and unemployment risks. For example, entry-level knowledge roles are increasingly subject to automation.
Therefore, domestic politics will increasingly revolve around AI’s economic impact. Moreover, public demand for responsible and safe AI continues to grow alongside competitive concerns.
Governance: Practical Implementation and Theory
AI policy in 2026 will move along two tracks; enforcement and conceptual debate. On the one hand, new rules like the EU’s AI Act will take effect.
Likewise, U.S. states will begin enforcing AI disclosure and transparency laws. On the other hand, theoretical concepts like “model welfare” and autonomous rights will gain prominence.
Accountability and Legal Status
As AI systems act more independently, questions of responsibility will intensify. One key query will be whether autonomous systems can hold legal duties or rights. If governments diverge on this, regulatory climates may attract different kinds of investment.
Trust and National Security Challenges
Visibility into AI behavior remains limited, creating trust gaps in critical systems. Shadow autonomy, AI decisions hidden from oversight, erodes organizational confidence.
Similarly, AI-generated identifies and code complicate cybersecurity and verification. Without mechanisms to observe and verify AI operations, trust in adoption lags.
Adoption: The Real Word of 2026
Rather than a breakthrough to superintelligence, widespread adoption will define AI’s immediate impact. Businesses, consumers and governments will rely increasingly on AI daily.
This adoption will also shape nation security capabilities and competitive edges. However, international binding AI governance agreements remain unlikely in 2026.
China’s Role in the Global AI Landscape
China’s AI development varies across regions, sectors, and levels of government support. Observers will monitor innovation, adoption, and military applications closely.
Private Chinese firms are increasingly key to both civilian and defense AI progress. Foreign AI adoption decisions will also shape global influence across markets and standards.
Reframing the AI’s “Race”
Rather than a single sprint to dominance, U.S. – China competition is multidimensional. Different domains, frontier development, adoption, and global norms, each have unique logics. Success in AI might look more like sustained versatility than one clear victory.
Source:
McGuire, C., Duffy, K., Nguyen, V., Horowitz, M. C., Segal, A., & Brandt, J. (2026, January 12). How 2026 could decide the future of artificial intelligence. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/articles/how-2026-could-decide-future-artificial-intelligence