Shifts in Global Norms and Power Structures
A long period of relative stability that followed World War II rested on agreed rules, shared institutions, and collective responses to conflict, yet recent developments cast doubt on their durability. For decades, Western countries forged alliances, reduced trade barriers, and sought to balance economic and military power through global institutions and treaties that discouraged coercive behaviour.
However, recent policies have prioritized unilateral advantage over cooperative frameworks, and this shift can erode what held the previous system together. For example, redefining national security in purely transactional terms has increased reliance on tariffs and market leverage instead of deeply trusted partnerships, and such an approach has weakened confidence in previously reliable economic and military arrangements.
More than one set of actors beyond dominant states, including non-state groups, technological disruptions and environmental stressors, further amplify global instability. These forces widen inequality, disrupt the functioning of institutions, and open space for leaders who favor quick, illiberal answers instead of long-term cooperative strategies. Meanwhile, other major powers seek change for their own purposes; some aim for competitive multipolarity, others wish to revise security arrangements in contested regions, all contributing to a world less defined by shared norms and more by shifting balances of influence and power.
Emerging alternatives to established global institutions highlight how states react to this perceived disorder. Some governments welcome looser formats that offer visibility and access without requiring adherence to longstanding rules, thus reinforcing transactional engagement. Such arrangements undermine confidence in institutional commitments while validating grievances against the former order and signaling a turn away from collective security towards temporary, case-by-case arrangements that rely on negotiation and short-term advantage rather than stable rules.
As a result, these new mechanisms, though lacking the institutional grounding of older systems, illustrate how countries attempt to navigate a world where formal multilateral leadership appears weakened, and where influence is increasingly driven by negotiation and short-term advantage rather than by stable, long-established norms.
Consequences for Partnerships, Institutions, and Further Order
Recent policy choices have also reshaped how partnerships operate and how institutions are perceived on the global stage. Traditional alliances once built on mutual obligations and shared strategic goals now face uncertainty about reliability, promoting allies to diversify their diplomatic and security arrangements rather than depend on a single hegemon. For instance, long-standing defense pacts have been questioned, and the emphasis on burden-sharing has shifted more responsibilities onto regional partners. This has raised questions about collective defense and economic cooperation, especially when foundational treaties and security guarantees are de-emphasized. In turn, this uncertainty encourages not just diversification among allies, but also competition among emerging powers seeking influence in newly contested areas.
Institutional trust has been further stained by efforts to sidestep traditional forums in favor of alternative initiatives that emphasize personal leadership or transactional benefit over established procedures. Although some sectors, like peacekeeping or humanitarian efforts, continue to function with institutional backing, the broader commitment to rules-based mechanisms appears uneven. Without widespread confidence in the legitimacy and consistency of such institutions, governments and markets may hedge their bets, weakening cooperative habits that once felt automatic. Consequently, fragmentation accelerates as partners pursue alternative arrangements, and cooperative frameworks that once underpinned global responses to shared crises risk fading into the background.
Amid these changes, lingering elements of earlier systems still exist, and some alliances remain strong in parts of the world. Yet the future structure of international politics is not predetermined. While some predict a shift toward multipolar competition or a concert of power, others see a fragmented landscape shaped by regional blocs. In every scenario, restoring broad confidence in shared values, reinforcing institutional resilience, and balancing national interests with collective stability remain central challenges in shaping whatever develops next.
Source:
Sisson, M. W., Hamilton, D. S., Rediker, D. A., Aydıntaşbaş, A., Felbab-Brown, V., Hass, R., … & Yeo, A. (2026, February 2). Is Trump reshaping the world order? Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-trump-reshaping-the-world-order/