The employment effects of ICE enforcement in US cities
The intensification of immigration enforcement operations in the United States during 2025 had consequences that extended well beyond the individuals directly targeted. According to the Brookings analysis, cities that experienced the largest increases in arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) also saw notable declines in employment. Rather than generating new opportunities for American workers, the enforcement surge was associated with broader economic disruptions that affected local labor markets as a whole.
Researchers examined employment trends in 341 U.S. cities and compared those that experienced sharp increases in ICE activity with those that did not. Before the enforcement surge, both groups followed similar employment patterns. However, once arrests intensified, their trajectories began to diverge. Across the 86 cities most affected, employment fell by an average of 0.73% below expected levels. In cities observed for at least six months after the surge, the decline reached 1.48%, suggesting that the economic effects deepened over time rather than fading quickly.
One of the study’s most striking findings is the gap between the number of arrests and the scale of job losses. Approximately 52,000 additional arrests were recorded in the cities experiencing the strongest enforcement actions, yet researchers estimate that around 668,000 jobs were lost. This difference indicates that the economic impact cannot be explained solely by the removal of workers from the labor force. Instead, the effects appear to have spread through local economies in ways that affected businesses, consumers, and workers more broadly.
The sectors most heavily affected were those that rely significantly on immigrant labor, particularly construction, accommodation, food services and others. Labor shortages forced some businesses to reduce operations, postpone projects or scale back hiring. At the same time, the analysis suggests that fear generated by highly visible enforcement actions altered daily economic activity. Some residents reduced travel, shopping, dining, and participation in public events, leading to lower consumer spending and weaker demand for local businesses.
These effects were not limited to industries with large immigrant workforces. Employment also declined in sectors such as arts, entertainment and recreation, where immigrant labor represents a much smaller share of workers. This pattern suggests that local economic contraction resulted not only from labor shortages but also from broader disruptions in community life and consumer behavior. When businesses lose customers, the consequences can spread across multiple sectors regardless of the demographic composition of their workforce.
The findings also challenge a common assumption underlying aggressive immigration enforcement policies: that removing unauthorized workers will automatically create jobs for U.S.-born workers. The study estimates that between 51,000 and 297,000 of the jobs lost during the enforcement surge would likely have been held by American-born workers. This reflects the interconnected nature of local economies, where different groups of workers often occupy complementary rather than interchangeable roles. When one segment of the workforce is disrupted, the effects can ripple throughout entire industries.
A broader concern emerging from the analysis is the relationship between enforcement strategies and economic stability. The 2025 campaign relied on highly visible raids, workplace operations, and public displays of enforcement intended to maximize deterrence. While such tactics may achieve immigration-control objectives, the evidence suggests they can also generate unintended economic costs that extend far beyond those directly arrested.
The results highlight the complexity of using immigration enforcement as a labor-market policy. Economic systems depend on networks of workers, consumers and businesses that influence one another in multiple ways. The study concludes that large-scale enforcement actions were associated with shrinking local economies and declining employment rather than the job growth promised by supporters of the policy. These findings raise important questions about how governments should balance enforcement objectives with the broader economic impacts experienced by local communities.
Reference: Escobari, M., Seyal, I., & Beach, P. (2026, May 29). Shock, awe, and economic fallout: The employment effects of ICE enforcement in US cities. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ice-enforcement-employment-effects-us-cities/